Iran war exposes the erosion of Britain's global power
- Amira Halperin
- 3 days ago
- 12 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
The Starmer government’s underwhelming response to attacks on British allies and global assets exposes a strategic bind: resisting pressure from the Trump administration to get more deeply involved in the conflict, while preserving vital U.S. ties. Its policy has raised questions about its ability to maintain its global standing
The outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran found the United Kingdom in a precarious situation from a political, economic, and military aspect. Britain is facing criticism from its allies over its conduct, as well as mounting pressure from the Trump administration to contribute to joint operations in the war – one that London neither wanted nor can control, and whose ramifications are shaking its already volatile economy and exposing its overstretched military.
Given this predicament, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's stance has been clear: He seeks to prevent the conflict in the Middle East from expanding and is now working with European countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yet his government’s slow and hesitant reaction to the war, despite attacks on British bases and citizens, has raised questions about the United Kingdom’s UK defence posture; its military’s battle readiness and force projection capabilities; and, specifically about its ability to defend against possible ballistic missile attacks. No less important, the harsh responses from the Trump administration to the Starmer government’s policy may signal possible damage to the United Kingdom’s “special relationship” with the United Kingdom. Taken together, these developments raise doubts about Britain’s ability to maintain its global standing.
Finally, British public opinion towards Israel – already critical due to the war in Gaza[1] – may further slump if Britons blame Jerusalem for launching a war that has seen energy bills skyrocket, in a country already suffering from a prolonged cost-of-living crisis.
Alienating allies, losing status
Like other US allies, the British Prime Minister is torn between the need to maintain relations with the Trump administration, who is pressing US allies to aid efforts to open the Strait by force, and commitment to UK allies, and his reluctance to get more deeply involved and commit men, military assets and treasure in a war he neither wanted nor controls. Yet the war’s events may eventually lead allies and partners to cast doubt about Britain’s ability and will to contribute to security cooperations frameworks.
Despite attempts to distance itself from another Middle East war, Britian was drawn into the conflict even before active hostilities began. In the last week of February 2026, reports came out that Starmer denied US President Donald Trump requests to use British and British-owned bases for air operations against Iran.[2] Then, two days into the conflict, the UK government reversed course and permitted American jets to fly from its bases to conduct “defensive” strikes.[3] Starmer’s initial refusal drew the ire of Trump, who said that Starmer is “no Churchill,” later accusing him of “seeking to join war we’ve already won.”[4]
The slow deployment of HMS Dragon became a symbol of London’s seemingly tepid response to the attack on its allies and assets in the Middle East
Other British allies also criticized its sluggish preparation for the war and military response once it began. On March 1st, the second day of the war, a one-way suicide drone hit the Royal Air Force base in Akrotiri, Cyprus. Two others were intercepted the following day. British fighter jets stationed in the Arab Gulf also intercepted drones launched by Iran towards the Gulf states.
Following the events of early March, Starmer announced the bolstering of UK military hardware and personnel in Cyprus, and that Royal Navy would dispatch an advanced destroyer to the eastern Mediterranean. However, the HMS Dragon only arrived on theater more than three weeks into the war, while British assets and nationals were being protected by Dutch, French, American, Spanish and Greek warships, alongside Royal Air Force jets.[5]
The slow deployment of HMS Dragon became a symbol of London’s seemingly tepid response to the attack on its allies and assets in the Middle East. Days after the drone attack on Akrotiri, the Cypriot prime minister said his country was “disappointed” by Britain’s failure to warn his people of the impending strike, leading the British defence minister to hastily fly to the island to meet his counterpart. Nicosia later stated it would need to discuss the future of the British “colonial bases” on their land once the war was over.[6]
Similarly, a senior Gulf diplomat was quoted saying Britain’s early response to the conflict fell short of what its partners in the region expected given the Kingdom’s longstanding military ties there. The source added that not much was provided in the way of “serious support.”[7]
“Under-resourced and overstretched”
In a wider sense, the war in the Middle East has drawn public and international attention the state of the UK’s armed forces and brought into question the preparedness of its armed forces for an outbreak of hostilities.
On 20 March 2026, Iran launched two intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) at the US-UK airbase in Diego Garcia, some 4,000km away.[8] The attack came in response to the Starmer government’s decision to join 20 other countries in a joint statement regarding their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait,”[9] and its decision to authorise the use of British military bases to strike Iranian missile launchers that are targeting commercial ships in the strait of Hormuz.[10]
The attempted strike against Diego Garcia, despite not reaching their target, sparked a heated debate in the UK about the country’s readiness for potential ballistic missile threats – from Iran, but also from Russia. Prime Minister Starmer insisted that Britons need not fear such a scenario. Housing secretary Steve Reed said the missile threat was being “exaggerated” by Israel to increase support for the war. “We have systems and defences in place that keep the United Kingdom safe, and that will continue to happen,” he said during an interview.[11] Some experts, however, disagree with the current government, pointing primarily to limited intercept capabilities.[12]
Tan Dhesi, chair of the House of Common’s defence committee, called Britain’s response to the Iran war "embarrassing"
These assessments are not new: according to BBC reporting from May 2025, “[p]oliticians from all sides, along with military chiefs, admit Britain's armed forces have been ‘hollowed out’.”[13] When put to the test in the current war, their deployment and utility arguably further reinforced the perception of the Royal military as being “depleted.”
In parliament, Tan Dhesi, Labour MP and chair of the House of Common’s defence committee, called Britain’s response to the Iran war "embarrassing,"[14] saying the government had allowed the military to enter the conflict “under-resourced and overstretched.” Starmer acknowledged some of the shortcomings but blamed them on previous governments’ underinvestment in defense.[15]
The Prime Minister, however, was then criticized from both sides of the aisle for his ongoing failing to pass a defence investment plan, leading to a delay in procurement which contributed to the lack of readiness by the armed forces.[16] Notably, a mere three days before the beginning of the war, Starmer announced that he had decided to increase the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.[17]
Exacerbating domestic tensions
Iran’s strategy since the beginning of the war is to close the Strait of Hormuz to the passage of marine vessels owned by, or serving, its adversaries. By driving global gas and oil prices up, it aims to inflict enough economic pain to pressure Trump into ending the war on terms favourable to Tehran.
The resulting energy crisis is deeply straining the already-struggling UK economy. Indeed, the ongoing conflict exacerbates pre-existing tensions, driven both by internal and external factors. While the Iranian regime presents a direct threat to UK security, the broader, indirect repercussions of the war may have even more far-reaching domestic consequences.
Politically, the war is weighing heavily on Britain’s embattled Prime Minister. Less than two years after his Labour party swept the elections, Starmer for months has been facing mounting political pressure, rejecting calls for resignation amid a fragile economy, rising costs of living, and intra-party tensions.[18]
Labour fears the new energy crisis will further erode support for the government in the run-up to the upcoming May elections
The cost of living, and energy in particular, have been a thorny issue during Starmer’s tenure. In May 2025, the Prime Minister was forced to reverse a deeply unpopular decision to cut winter fuel support for pensioners after facing months-long political uproar, including from within his own party.[19] With energy prices now rising again, Starmer announced a support package of over £50mn for “vulnerable" households who have been hit by a sharp increase in the price of heating oil.[20]
Labour fears the new energy crisis will further erode support for the government in the run-up to the upcoming May elections, when Britain’s four nations go to the polls. However, Starmer’s reluctance to enter the war – which has earned his Trump’s ire – may also have temporarily eased some of the political pressure to remove him at home.[21]
The conflict in the Middle East also heightens fears of domestic terror attacks and hate crimes.[22] In October 2025, the Director General of MI5, Sir Ken McCallum, reported that security agencies have tracked “more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots” in the previous year.[23] He has issued similar reports in earlier years. Those targeted by Iran in the UK include dissidents, journalists, Israelis, Jews, and others.
A 23 March arson attack in a Jewish neighbourhood of London,[24] while not yet attributed to Iran, echoes similar attacks during the war against Jewish institutions in the US, Canada, the Netherlands and other countries.[25] In the Jewish community, many believe these attacks will continue.
The Israeli angle
The US-Israel war on Iran may also have direct and indirect consequences for UK-Israel relations and for the fate of the Jewish community in Britian.
Current-day polls show that most British people oppose the war with Iran,[26] and since Israel receives at least some of the blame for the outbreak of the conflict, it is therefore also seen as responsible for the current rise of energy prices. In a YouGov poll taken early in the war, only 14% of Britons described themselves as pro-Israel, 34% as anti-Israel, and 36% as neither.[27] As the war drags on and British households increasingly feel the economic backlash, the tilt against Israel will likely accelerate.
As the war drags on and British households increasingly feel the economic backlash, the tilt against Israel will likely accelerate
This development comes against the backdrop of persistent criticism of Israel over the war in Gaza in the past two-and-a-half-years, which created tension between the two countries over multiple issues, including arms export to Israel and the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza. A further erosion in UK-Israeli relations now would undermine the strong partnership between the two countries, as evidenced in the 2030 roadmap for UK-Israel Bilateral relations,[28] likely affecting intelligence sharing, security cooperation, and trade relations.
Moreover, the Labour party’s handling of the war and energy crisis could indirectly affect the outcome of the May elections in Britain – which, in turn, may spell a difficult time for Israel and for the Jewish community in the country. The Starmer government’s main rival in these elections is the far-right Reform UK Party led by Nigel Farage. While Reform’s voters maintain a relatively high level of support for the war,[29] the party is also anti-immigration and xenophobic, and some of its members have been found promoting antisemitism.[30] A strong showing by Reform in the May elections may bring hostile actors into power and lead to growing antisemitism.
Conclusion
The war in Iran has dominated the news cycle in the United Kingdom since it broke out. Its lack of public support and the global energy crisis it has generated have heightened tensions in a country already struggling with long-term cost-of-living problems.
The Starmer government’s uneven response to the war may end up damaging Britain’s global standing as a military power, having been criticized from both sides of the domestic political aisle, as well as by allies such as the United States and Cyprus. Furthermore, the way in which the Royal armed forces were deployed during the war may potentially diminish Britain’s appeal as a security partner for European countries. Alongside Trump’s repeated rebuke of Starmer’s decision-making and the ability of Britain’s armed forces, it may even weaken the “special relationship” between Washington D.C. and London.
Domestically, due to the conflict’s lack of popularity among Britons, the Prime Minister’s firm position on de-escalation of the war may help him politically. A key decisive factor will be the degree in which he succeeds in shielding the public from the impact of rising energy costs. Starmer and Labour’s big test will come in the May elections.
Finally, if the narrative blaming Israel for the war, as well as and the economic woes it has caused, takes hold in the British public, public support for Israel might plunge even further. The accumulative damage to ties with one of Israel’s closest partners in Europe, and the negative effect on an already-anxious local Jewish community, may prove hard to reverse.
Dr. Amira Halperin is a Senior Research Associate at the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM), London, and a member of Forum Dvorah, women in national security and foreign policy.
Notes
[2] Brad Lendon, “Britain blocking use of air bases Trump says would be needed for strikes on Iran, UK media reports,” CNN, 20 February 2026. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/20/europe/britain-air-base-access-us-iran-intl-hnk-ml
[3] Ben Hatton, “UK will allow US to use bases to strike Iranian missile sites, PM says,” BBC, 2 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqj9g11p1ezo
[4] Jennifer McKeiernan, “Trump says Starmer is 'no Winston Churchill' over Iran strikes,” BBC, 3 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62gwkjg0k9o ; Ana Faguyand and Jack Fenwick, “Trump accuses Starmer of seeking to 'join wars after we've already won',” BBC, 8 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dn3j04lydo
[5] Thomas Mackintoshand Jonathan Beale, “UK to send Royal Navy warship HMS Dragon to Cyprus,” BBC, 4 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g40yp2p13o ; “HMS Dragon works up in UK waters on her way to Cyprus,” Navy Lookout, 14 March 2026. https://www.navylookout.com/hms-dragon-works-up-in-uk-waters-on-her-way-to-cyprus/
[6] Jessica Elgot, “UK defence secretary flies to Cyprus amid fallout over RAF base drone strike,” The Guardian, 5 March 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/05/uk-defence-minister-flies-to-cyprus-drone-strike-raf-base-iran-war-middle-east-crisis ; Jessica Parker, Paul Kirby and Hywel Griffith, “Cyprus leader calls for frank discussion on 'colonial' UK bases,” BBC, 19 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7166denxeo
[7] Anne McElvoy, Esther Webber and Sophie Inge, “Britain scrambles to shield Gulf allies as Iran war pounds on,” Politico.eu, 16 March 2026. https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-scrambles-to-shield-gulf-allies-as-iran-war-pounds-on/
[8] Nadeem Badshah and Morgan Ofori, “UK foreign secretary condemns Iran’s ‘reckless threats’ after strike towards US-UK base,” The Guardian, 21 March 2026.
[9] “Joint statement from the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, Canada and others on the Strait of Hormuz: 19 March 2026,” Press release, The Prime Minister’s Office, 19 March 2026. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026
[10] Previously, they were only being used to strike Iranian sites targeting British allies and interests in Gulf states. See: Rowena Mason, Heather Stewart, Gwyn Topham and Jessica Elgot, “Anger grows among UK ministers amid fears Iran war could jeopardise Britain’s fragile finances,” The Guardian, 21 March 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/uk-ministers-begin-contingency-planning-amid-fears-for-economic-effects-of-iran-war
[11] Kira Devlin, “Minister insists UK is safe from Iranian missiles as Israel accused of exaggerating threat,” The Independent, 23 March 2026. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iran-war-missiles-london-israel-reed-b2943422.html
[12] Harriette Boucher, “How the UK would defend itself from an Iranian missile attack,” The Independent, 23 March 2026. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-iran-missile-attack-defence-us-war-b2943549.html
[13] Jonathan Beale, “The real problem facing Britain's shrinking military,” BBC, 12 May 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd4lp6w378o
[14] Kate Whennel, “PM warns against 'false comfort' of thinking Iran war will end quickly,” BBC, 23 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy01l49kkgdo
[15] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/mar/23/keir-starmer-donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz-shabana-mahood-john-healey-labour-conservatives-kemi-badenoch-cobra-uk-politics-latest-updates-news?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-69c153d08f0870f125bb1d41#block-69c153d08f0870f125bb1d41
[16] Whennel, “PM warns against 'false comfort'.”
[17] “Prime Minister sets out biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, protecting British people in new era for national security,” Press release, The Prime Minister’s Office, 25 February 2026. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-biggest-sustained-increase-in-defence-spending-since-the-cold-war-protecting-british-people-in-new-era-for-national-security
[18] Kate Whennel, “I will never walk away, says PM after facing pressure to quit,” BBC, 10 February 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20j65ldg9zo
[19] Pippa Crerar, Peter Walker and Aletha Adu, “Keir Starmer confirms U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts,” The Guardian, 21 May 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/may/21/keir-starmer-confirms-u-turn-on-winter-fuel-payment-cuts
[20] Nick Edser, “Starmer announces £53m support to help with heating oil costs,” BBC, 17 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp9mgpzn901o
[21] Peter Walker, “What’s at stake for UK in May’s elections: six key questions,” The Guardian, 23 March 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/23/uk-local-elections-key-takeaways; Emilio Casalicchio, Sam Blewett and Dan Bloom, “‘Iran has bought him time’: War eases leadership pressure on Starmer,” Politico.eu, 23 March 2026. https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-has-bought-him-time-war-eases-leadership-pressure-on-uk-keir-starmer/
[22] Author’s conversation with a UK government official.
[23] Philip Loft, “Iranian state threat activities in the UK,” Research briefing CBF-10413, House of Commons Library, UK Parliament, 5 December 2025. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10413/CBP-10413.pdf
[24] Greg Mackenzie and Claire Keenan, “Four ambulances set on fire in London in suspected antisemitic hate crime,” BBC, 23 March 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyj1p49gdpo
[25] “Wave of attacks on Jewish sites sparks international alarm,” The Jewish Independent, 17 March 2026. https://thejewishindependent.com.au/antisemitic-attacks-jewish-world
[26] “UK public opinion on the US-Iran conflict,” YouGov UK, last updated 16 March 2026 (accessed 24 March 2026). https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54243-uk-public-opinion-on-the-us-iran-conflict
[27] “UK public opinion on the US-Iran conflict”.
[28] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/2030-roadmap-for-uk-israel-bilateral-relations/2030-roadmap-for-uk-israel-bilateral-relations
[29] “UK public opinion on the US-Iran conflict”.
[30] “Reform drops parliamentary candidate ahead of General Election following antisemitism accusations,” Campaign Against Antisemitism, 4 April 2024. https://antisemitism.org/reform-drops-parliamentary-candidate-ahead-of-general-election-following-antisemitism-accusations
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